By Oluwaseun Taiwo

Democracy in West Africa is at a turning point, being challenged by military takeovers, public disillusionment, and systemic inefficiencies. Across the Sahel, democratic progress is inhibited by military-led governments, insecurity, and geopolitical pressures, with recent coups in Burkina Faso and Mali highlighting the fragile state of transitions. As ECOWAS approaches its 50th anniversary, the regional bloc grapples with ideological shifts and tensions, including official withdrawals by Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. These dynamics, compounded by rising extremism and disinformation, underscore the precarious state of democratic values in the region.

Three countries under military rule have officially left the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) after more than a year of diplomatic tensions. The withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger is a huge blow to ECOWAS, which at 50 years old is considered Africa’s most important regional group. The split was sparked after the three departing countries refused ECOWAS’ demand to restore democratic rule. ECOWAS stated it would keep its “doors open” to Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, even though they have forged ahead with their own bloc, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).

Relations between ECOWAS and the three Sahel countries have been tense since military coups took place in Niger (2023), Burkina Faso (2022), and Mali (2020). After the Niger coup, ECOWAS imposed crippling sanctions, such as border closures, a no-fly zone for commercial flights, and the freezing of central bank assets. These hardline measures only strengthened the resolve of the three juntas. Mali and Burkina Faso criticized ECOWAS’ “inhuman” sanctions and vowed to defend Niger if the bloc intervened militarily. After being suspended by ECOWAS, the three states gave notice last year that they would withdraw in a year, meeting the timeline set by the bloc for member states to leave. The three countries accuse ECOWAS of being too close to Western powers and have instead pivoted toward Russia for economic and military support. The departing nations argue that leaving ECOWAS will grant them greater sovereignty and independence from foreign influence. However, analysts warn that Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger may struggle outside the bloc. These landlocked countries rely heavily on trade and economic integration with their West African neighbours.

The departure of these three nations means ECOWAS will lose 76 million of its 446 million people and more than half its total geographical land area. This weakens regional unity and coordination in combatting insurgencies.

ECOWAS was supporting Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in their fight against jihadists. With this support now in question, observers fear an increase in regional instability and violence. The countries claim they now have the freedom to dictate their political and economic policies without external pressure. The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) aims to prioritize military cooperation over political integration, potentially allowing more effective responses to insurgencies. The move reflects a broader rejection of Western-backed governance models in favor of alternative alliances, including closer ties with Russia. As landlocked nations, these states rely on regional trade. The withdrawal could create economic instability. Without ECOWAS’ backing, counterinsurgency efforts could suffer, exacerbating insecurity. The departure weakens ECOWAS as a regional bloc and raises concerns about a fragmented West Africa.

The exit of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from ECOWAS raises questions about the future of democracy in West Africa. With multiple military regimes in power, the region faces increasing risks of authoritarian entrenchment. ECOWAS has given Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali a six-month grace period to reconsider their withdrawal. However, AES has begun circulating new passports and forming a joint military force, signalling their intent to remain independent. As West Africa navigates these transitions, the future of regional cooperation, governance, and security remains uncertain. While military rule appears to be gaining ground, the demand for democratic accountability is far from extinguished. The coming years will determine whether ECOWAS can adapt to these changes or if the region will further fragment along ideological lines.