By Oluwaseun Taiwo

For decades, France has played a central role in the security and economic affairs of its former African colonies. From military interventions to economic partnerships and political influence, its presence has been deeply entrenched. However, a significant shift is now underway. France is withdrawing its troops from several Western and French-speaking African nations, signaling a new phase in its relationship with the continent. This decision raises important questions: Is France making a strategic move, or is it retreating from an Africa that no longer welcomes its influence? And what does this mean for the future of these nations, particularly in terms of security, economic development, and political stability?

France’s military presence in Africa has long been a subject of both praise and controversy. It has stationed troops in several countries, including Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Ivory Coast, often under the rationale of counterterrorism and stability. Operation Serval, launched in 2013, was a direct response to Islamist militants advancing in northern Mali. This evolved into Operation Barkhane, a long-term counterterrorism initiative covering the entire Sahel region. French forces worked alongside local governments to combat extremist groups like Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP). While these operations were initially seen as necessary, they later drew criticism for their inefficacy in eliminating the terrorist threat and for the perceived neocolonial overreach of France.

The decision to withdraw did not come suddenly. Growing anti-French sentiment across the region has been a major factor. In Mali and Burkina Faso, governments have accused France of failing to deliver on its promise to eradicate terrorism, leading to strained diplomatic relations. Military coups in both nations further complicated France’s role, as the new leaderships sought to distance themselves from Western influence. In Niger, following the July 2023 coup, the military junta demanded the immediate departure of French forces, a move that marked a significant break from previous security arrangements. Even in Ivory Coast, where France has historically maintained a strong presence, there is increasing discussion about reassessing ties.

As France pulls out, African nations are left to face pressing security concerns. The Sahel region remains a hotbed for jihadist activity. Without French military support, governments must find alternative ways to combat these threats. Some nations are turning to regional cooperation, strengthening alliances such as the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), which now includes Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Others are looking to new global partners. Russia, through the African Corp (formerly known as Wagner Group), has already stepped in to offer security assistance to countries like Mali. China and Turkey are also emerging as alternative allies, offering military and economic support that comes without the historical baggage associated with France.

Beyond security, economic and political implications loom large. Many of these nations have long relied on France for investment, aid, and trade. France remains a key player in sectors like mining and energy, particularly in Niger, which supplies uranium crucial to France’s nuclear power industry. With reduced French involvement, African leaders must navigate a new economic landscape, balancing national interests with foreign investments. Will they diversify partnerships to reduce dependency on former colonial powers, or will they face economic instability in the absence of French support?

For France, the withdrawal is both a risk and an opportunity. On one hand, stepping back allows it to alleviate financial and military burdens, focusing on domestic and European affairs. On the other, it means losing strategic influence in a region it once controlled. France’s historical role as a key mediator in African affairs is weakening, and its political leverage in institutions like the African Union and ECOWAS could diminish. Additionally, its ability to protect economic interests, particularly in resource-rich nations, is now more uncertain.

This shift also has broader geopolitical implications. With France stepping back, other global players are seizing the opportunity to expand their influence in Africa. Russia’s increasing presence, particularly through mercenary groups, signals a different model of engagement, one that prioritizes military partnerships over traditional diplomacy. China, with its economic investments and infrastructure projects, is well-positioned to fill any void left by France. The United States and the European Union are also reassessing their roles, recognizing that a changing Africa demands new approaches to foreign policy and engagement.

For the African nations affected, this is a pivotal moment. While French withdrawal might empower governments to assert greater sovereignty, the risks of instability are real. Without strong security frameworks in place, extremist groups could gain more ground, threatening not just national borders but regional stability. Economically, countries must navigate a future where they are less reliant on a single foreign power, but whether this leads to growth or struggle remains uncertain. Politically, leaders must tread carefully, ensuring that in breaking from the past, they are not merely replacing one foreign influence with another.

What’s clear is that both sides have much at stake. African nations must navigate a new era of self-determination while mitigating the risks of insecurity and economic instability. France, meanwhile, must reconsider how it engages with the continent beyond military presence. The withdrawal may mark the end of an era, but it is by no means the end of the relationship. The question now is how both France and Africa will redefine their future, and whether this break from the past will lead to greater independence or deeper uncertainty.