By Adam Abass

Northern Ethiopia has been engulfed in a series of violent conflicts since 2020, following the deployment of Ethiopian federal government troops to the Tigray region for a special operation, which escalated into a full-scale civil war between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray rebels. After two years of brutal and devastating war, a peace agreement was brokered by the African Union for the cessation of hostilities. However, the aftermath of the Tigray war, including the disarming of the rebel groups, led to further hostilities, with heightened tensions largely between rebel groups and the federal government troops in the Oromia and Amhara region.

The scale of the ongoing conflict has caused a grim humanitarian crisis, with widespread displacement, dire food insecurity, and increasing civilian casualties, often due mishaps in drone strikes targeting displaced civilian camps. This ethnically-driven conflict has received little attention from the international mainstream media, overshadowed by the coverage of other conflict hotspots around the world. Nevertheless, a critical question remains: why has violent conflict persisted in northern Ethiopia in recent years, with the civilian bearing the cost?  

Amhara and Oromia militia insurgency:

The conflict between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray rebels in 2020 is perceived to have set the stage for insurgency activities elsewhere in the region, particularly in Amhara. While the Tigray conflict ended with the peace accord, violence shifted to other areas. The Ethiopian federal government now battles insurgent violence from two fronts: the Amhara region militia Fano and the Oromo Liberation Army OLA in Oromia.

Initially, the Amhara militia enjoyed a  partnership with the federal government, even supported its war efforts in the Tigray. However, conflict with the federal government escalated as the Fano militia grew skeptical of the Tigray peace agreement, and opposed the federal government’s plan to conduct a referendum in disputed territory controlled by Fano.

The schism between the Fano militia and the federal government reached a tipping point when the federal government moved to dissolve and disarm regional special forces across Ethiopia. The Amhara nationalist and Fano militia perceived this move as an attempt to render the Amhara defenseless in the face of discrimination and violent attacks on ethnic Amhara across the country. This eventually led to violent conflict in April 2023, with the federal government troops successfully disarming the regional special forces in Amhara and gaining control of the region.

In mid-2023, the Fano militia regrouped and launched an offensive against government forces, capturing key cities including the capital, Bahir Dar. In September last year, the Fano militias also launched an offensive against the federal troops to weaken their activities and reclaim key cities and areas. The federal government, on the other hand, is also battling insurgent activities in the Oromia region.

The conflict between the Oromo militias and the Ethiopian government, for the rights and an end to the marginalization of ethnic Oromia people, has been ongoing for the past six years. However, the conflict reached its peak in late 2023 when two unsuccessful rounds of negotiations were launched to end the conflict. In late 2023, Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project ACLED recorded 74 events and 189 fatalities in the Oromia region as a result of the ongoing clashes between the Oromo militias and the federal government troops. Additionally, according to ACLED, as of July 2024, Oromo militia and the federal government troops are still engaging in hostile attacks, as daily clashes have occurred between both sides, particularly in the southern and western parts of the region.

The clashes between insurgent groups in both the Oromia and Amhara regions have taken a heavy toll on the local populations, as over 7 million people were exposed to conflict in 2024 in the Amhara region. This has also threatened Ethiopia’s stability. However, the government’s heavy-handed military response has exacerbated the situation.

Addis Ababa response:

The federal government’s response to the insurgent activities has been mixed. It has relied heavily on military force, particularly through drone strikes in areas where ground troops find it difficult to access, while also pursuing negotiation. However, instead of these heavy drone strikes repelling or weakening the insurgent activities, they have, in turn, grown in strength. These drone strikes have also resulted in the indiscriminate targeting of civilian populations in both the Oromia and Amhara regions. On the other hand, the negotiated talks have seen limited success. while efforts for peace talks with the rebel groups in the Oromia region have been minimal, the Amhara rebel and the federal government peace initiative have witnessed steady progress. However, several factors, such as disunity and division between the Fano militia, as well as federal government military targeted attacks on rebel locations during peace negotiations continue to impede the peace process and erode trust in the federal government’s commitment to pursue peace.

In conclusion, the region remains fragile, with reports of renewed clashes in the Tigray region, between Tigray rebels, government troops, and other regional militias. It is important to note that the continued use of violence will escalate the conflict. Instead, a third-party peace settlement led by the AU, with full oversight of its implementation, and a national dialogue to discuss the inclusion and integration of marginalized regions such as the Oromia, Tigray and Amhara, will be essential for lasting and durable peace in the country.