By Oluwaseun Taiwo

A Nairobi garment factory buzzing with energy. Sewing machines whirring. Hands darting across denim. Piles of jeans freshly stitched awaiting export to American shelves. Then, a chill creeps in. Not from the breeze. But from a looming deadline. September is around the corner. And with it, the possible death of Kenya’s golden goose the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

We’ve seen trade deals fall apart before. But this one? It carries the weight of livelihoods, political posturing, and global market shifts.

 From Global to Loal: The AGOA Overview

AGOA was launched in 2000 under the Clinton administration with a dream: boost economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa by giving countries duty-free access to U.S. markets. It is a piece of legislation that was approved by the U.S. Congress in May 2000. The stated purpose of this legislation is to assist the economies of sub-Saharan Africa and to improve economic relations between the United States and the region That meant more exports, more jobs, and a stronger Africa-U.S. relationship.

Kenya embraced the opportunity with both arms. Over the years, the country has become one of AGOA’s biggest beneficiaries, particularly in textiles and apparel. In 2023 alone, Kenya exported over $500 million worth of goods to the U.S. under the scheme, with garments making up nearly 80% of that total. But now, in 2025, that dream is fraying at the seams. The AGOA deal is set to expire this September. And with global politics being the temperamental beast it is nothing is certain.

 What’s at Stake for Kenya?

Let’s cut through the economic jargon. This isn’t just about trade. It’s about 16,000 workers, many of them women, clocking in every morning at Nairobi’s United Aryan garment factory- one of Kenya’s largest AGOA beneficiaries.

Their livelihood? Hanging by a thread.

If the AGOA deal isn’t renewed or replaced by a bilateral agreement, Kenya could lose up to $500 million in textile exports to the U.S. The ripple effects? Job losses, inflation in already fragile communities, and a potential political storm for President Ruto’s administration.

In the heart of Nairobi’s bustling industrial zone, the rhythmic hum of sewing machines echoes hopes and anxiety in equal measure. Thousands of workers, many of them women, skillfully piecing together denim destined for U.S. shelves under a trade agreement that has, for over two decades, been a lifeline for Kenya’s export economy. But that lifeline is beginning to fray.

With the expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) fast approaching in September 2025, Kenya and the wider African continent is staring into an uncertain trade future. The question is simple, yet seismic: What happens if AGOA isn’t renewed?

The threat to AGOA isn’t because Kenya has done anything wrong. Rather, it’s caught in the whirlwind of U.S. domestic politics.

Initially, the Biden administration expressed interest in renewing or reforming AGOA. But with Donald Trump returning to the White House, there’s been a significant policy shift. Trump’s “America First” approach tends to prioritize bilateral deals over multilateral arrangements. That means AGOA, an agreement that benefits multiple African countries may be replaced with individual trade agreements tailored to U.S. interests.

While Kenya is already in preliminary talks with the U.S. for a bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA), critics warn that such deals come with strings attached and could undermine Africa’s continental unity and bargaining power under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Kenya’s AGOA dilemma is a snapshot of a larger issue: Africa’s vulnerability in global trade. Many African countries depend on preferential trade schemes with wealthier nations, often lacking the negotiating power to shape terms.

If the U.S. abandons AGOA, it risks not just hurting economies like Kenya’s but also ceding ground to China and the EU, both of which are aggressively pursuing stronger trade ties with Africa. It also contradicts America’s repeated commitment to supporting African development and self-reliance.

For Kenya, the stakes couldn’t be higher. At a time when the country is trying to position itself as a manufacturing and innovation hub, losing AGOA without a robust replacement could dampen investor confidence, shrink foreign exchange reserves, and fuel domestic discontent especially in an election-sensitive climate.

While AGOA has certainly delivered economic benefits, Kenya must begin to shift from dependency to self-determined trade resilience. The AfCFTA offers a promising alternative-an intra-African market that can promote value-added production and reduce reliance on unpredictable Western policy shifts.

Still, AGOA remains a critical bridge. It shouldn’t be burned lightly.

The Kenyan government must lobby hard but wisely. Any replacement deal must be transparent, fair, and aligned with Kenya’s long-term development goals. The U.S., on its part, must consider the symbolic and strategic cost of abandoning its African trade partners at a time when the world is re-aligning along new economic fault lines.

Trade, like a well-tailored garment, is all about the delicate, deliberate, and often invisible stitching. When the stitching holds, the fabric is strong. But pull at one loose thread, and the whole thing risks unravelling.

Kenya is that fabric today. And AGOA? That thread. What the U.S. and Kenya do in the coming months could determine whether this is a story of growth or one of unravelling dreams.

September is coming. The machines are still running. But for how long?